The Verus Team

The Verus Team’s 2017 Predictions and Review & 2018 Expectations

Written by: The Verus Team. Any opinions are those of The Verus Team and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James.

As we do each year, we dust off our annual predictions to see how close we were to what actually happened and share with our readers.    Drumroll please…….

In 2017 we predicted:

  • The markets will continue to set all-time highs, ending the year near 25000 on the Dow, 7000 on the Nasdaq and 2700 on the S& P 500, OR will completely reverse course and decline to near 15000 on the Dow, 4000 on the Nasdaq and 1800 on the S & P 500…
  • The markets will become captivated with crypto-currency and in a year of very volatile trading, Bitcoin will finish the year between $1000 - $17000 in value.
  • The dollar will have its worst performance in 14 years, OR its best performance in 14 years. 
  • The Fed will start to raise interest rates, OR keep them the same. 
  • Apple will release between 1 and 3 new phones, naming them IPhone 8, 9, 10, or 11.
  • Oil prices will continue to be volatile and will finish in the 60, 50, 40, 30 or 20 dollar range per barrel.
  • Amazon will buy a sports franchise OR a grocery store.
  • Align Technology or Range Resources will be the best performing company in the S& P 500.
  • The tax code will get more complicated.
  • Investors that have solid investment plans aligned with their goals and that take an appropriate level of risk in their portfolio will have a good year. 

So as you can tell from the above, we placed quite a bit of our attention on providing a fairly large range to handicap our predictions.  In fact, and we trust you can sense our sarcasm, 2017 was another year where what we may have expected was very different than what we experienced.  

The only thing we got right in 2017, and typically get correct each year, is that generally speaking the investor that takes the time to craft a plan that is aligned with their goals will more times than not properly meet their yearly expectations.

Heading into 2018 is no different than heading into 2017.  We start from a current state, weigh multiple possibilities about the future, and try to align our strategy within some reasonable expectations and outcomes.  Like any scenario, we craft a strategy that will provide flexibility and proper liquidity, but also puts us in a place to appropriately participate while also protecting should results range wider than is typically usual or anticipated.

After a year where markets did preform like they did in 2017, it is only prudent to look at the market price landscape and portfolio valuations, and review one’s goals and objectives.  Stock markets may continue to do well – like we saw in 2017, OR they won’t.  In either case, it may make more sense to prognosticate on how your current finances specifically relate to your own life vs. trying to target some number associated with a market or investment’s value in the future, and what that may do for you.

Rather than ask the questions around interest rate levels or where the Dow Jones Industrial Average will be in December, perhaps one should spend more time making educated predictions around what one may want or need in 2018 and beyond.  If you have been fortunate to appropriately participate in the markets this past year and returns exceeded your own expectations, now is an ideal time to reassess.

Perhaps you have new goals or objectives that you would like to address or can now afford.  Maybe nothing has changed with your goals, but the outperformance in your portfolio provides you with a needed cushion and it allows you to review, and possibly adjust, your risk profile.  

Regardless of which, let the beginning of a new year inspire each of us to make predictions and prognostications about our own lives, not what a particular market or investment may do by year end.  While the outcome of those investments can certainly impact and influence a strategy, we would like to avoid them completely dictating one.  

Ok – so with that, here are our Shocking 2018 Predictions:

  • Stock markets will be higher, lower, or the same in 2018
  • The recently signed Tax Plan will help US stock prices move higher, or is already priced into the market
  • Politics will play a part in the market’s performance, or it will not have much impact at all
  • There will be more ways for retail investors to get access to cryptocurrencies
  • Geopolitical events remain a risk
  • The New York Yankees will win the World Series (ok that’s just wishful thinking)
  • Interest rates will fluctuate
  • There will be surprises
  • Someone will have a discussion about the weather with you
  • There will be an event this year that will make you angry, happy, frustrated, entertained, and sad
  • Social Media will still exist

Thank you.  We can’t wait to see how many of the above are accurate next year.

Until then we wish you a very Happy New Year!

Stay tuned for more Verus Team content in 2018.

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Investing involves risk, investors may incur a profit or loss regardless of the strategy or strategies employed. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow” is an index used to measure the daily stock price movements of 30 large, publicly owned U.S. companies. The NASDAQ composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system. Please note direct investment in any index is not possible. 2017-000243