The Verus Team

Verus Team 2016 Year in Review and 2017 Predictions

Written by : The Verus Team  Opinions are those of the Verus Team and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James.

January is a time to reflect on the previous year and look forward into the next.  Prior to 2016, we did not have the platform to publish our previous year’s predictions.  Fortunately,  we came across our notes from the end of 2015, with the 2016 predictions, and we can now share what we predicted prior to 2016.

We predicted that in 2016::

The markets will begin the year with a 10% correction in the first 6 weeks of the year bottoming in February.

After raising rates in December of 2015, the Federal Reserve will not raise rates again until the end of 2016.

The yield on the 10 year Treasury will trade as low as 1.39% over the summer.

There will be many sovereign nations offering negative interest rates on their debt.

The S & P 500, Nasdaq and DJIA will set all-time highs by the end of the year.

Crude Oil will be up 45% for the year.

Energy, Telecom and Financials will be the best performing sectors.

President Obama will be the first President to visit Cuba since 1928

In a repudiation of the establishment and in what many will see as a vote against their own self-interest, Great Britain will vote to leave the EU.

Singer Bob Dylan will win the Nobel Prize in Literature and will not attend the ceremony.

Donald Trump will win the 2016 Presidential election.

The Cleveland Cavaliers will end 50+ years of the championship drought for the city of Cleveland which would be the top sports story of the year…. 

If not for ……The Chicago Cubs will win the World Series.  Yes you read that correctly.

As you have probably already determined, we did not predict any of this.  If you had given us this list at the beginning of the year and asked how many of these events would have actually happened, we might have guessed 2 or 3 with little confidence.  The point is however, the above events DID occur, in spite of how improbable many of these would have seemed to be at the beginning of the year.    And in a number of cases (Brexit, Presidential election) the subsequent reaction was completely different than what the pundits “told” us to expect.    

So why does this matter? 

2016, like every previous year, was full of unpredictable events, market fluctuations, short term overreactions, and plenty of reasons to question your long term financial strategy.    We spent a lot more time this year reminding clients of the importance of crafting a financial plan around your life that incorporates the unknown.   While these events may have tested resolve, temporarily impacted the value of investments, or simply provided entertainment, did anything in the past year change your long term financial goals?  If so, it was likely something in your life, and not any of the aforementioned “predictions.” 

In creating financial plans, we have no idea what will happen with the markets, politics, or world events in the coming year(s).  Anyone with a sound financial strategy that aligns values and financial goals however, who leaves adequate short term capital to meet liquidity needs, and also provides flexibility to take advantage of unforeseen investment opportunities… those investors should have a good year regardless of what happens.  

With that, we will be giving you our 2017 predictions………in January of 2018.

Happy New Year!  

 

This information does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material, it has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Investing involves risk, investors may incur a profit or loss regardless of the strategy or strategies employed. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.